Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.274907 2.409310 2.555292 2.727176 2.926141 3.151993 3.432015
2025-05-04 2.125145 2.295675 2.489490 2.730198 3.027519 3.392454 3.891987
2025-05-11 2.022340 2.214880 2.440880 2.732940 3.112643 3.610567 4.357833
2025-05-18 1.912695 2.113103 2.353259 2.671913 3.101137 3.691909 4.645570
2025-05-25 1.844346 2.054349 2.311017 2.660478 3.148378 3.855269 5.095471
2025-06-01 1.784036 2.000452 2.269280 2.643328 3.182068 3.999914 5.557242
2025-06-08 1.729787 1.950342 2.228043 2.621643 3.204202 4.127052 6.031970
2025-06-15 1.699921 1.928988 2.222023 2.646639 3.296541 4.384136 6.899731
2025-06-22 1.632901 1.856420 2.143699 2.562736 3.210699 4.313994 6.966348
2025-06-29 1.599717 1.826396 2.120836 2.556853 3.247289 4.472483 7.721636
2025-07-06 1.551895 1.775231 2.066744 2.501470 3.197638 4.458080 7.976398
2025-07-13 1.539329 1.769997 2.075049 2.538754 3.304871 4.774573 9.603683
2025-07-20 1.534168 1.775438 2.099790 2.605047 3.475009 5.285851 13.192613
2025-07-27 1.509337 1.753122 2.083964 2.606780 3.529728 5.554402 16.745050
2025-08-03 1.486346 1.732351 2.069183 2.608793 3.584858 5.844306 22.997476
2025-08-10 1.448199 1.689494 2.020694 2.553317 3.523432 5.804822 25.265632
2025-08-17 1.425067 1.666686 2.000503 2.542851 3.549298 6.022043 38.287201
2025-08-24 1.401861 1.643033 1.978091 2.527247 3.563053 6.210918 74.819090
2025-08-31 1.378807 1.618919 1.954080 2.507537 3.566289 6.370922 NaN
2025-09-07 1.368398 1.612114 1.955333 2.530221 3.660442 6.879571 NaN
2025-09-14 1.332570 1.568614 1.900308 2.453949 3.535028 6.557794 NaN
2025-09-21 1.316646 1.552940 1.886724 2.448589 3.563946 6.827366 NaN
2025-09-28 1.289750 1.521155 1.848000 2.398087 3.489694 6.680570 NaN